Black Friday Was a Dud Unless You Wanted a $70,000 Work Truck

If you spent your post-Thanksgiving food coma doom-scrolling through dealership websites, eyes glazed over from too much turkey and tryptophan, expecting to find a lease deal that didn’t require selling a kidney, you probably woke up Friday morning with a distinct sense of hollowness. It wasn’t just the hangover from the stuffing; it was the realization that despite the relentless bombardment of “Black Friday Sales Event” ads featuring giant red bows, screaming fonts, and enthusiastic local weathermen-turned-pitchmen, the actual numbers tell a different, much sadder story.

According to early retail data dropping from major auto shopping platforms this morning, Black Friday 2025 was a massive "nothingburger" for the average car buyer. If you were expecting 2019-style doorbusters where cars were practically being given away with a free flat-screen TV, you were sorely mistaken. Incentives were shockingly flat compared to October, and in some high-demand segments, they actually got worse.

Here is the reality check: The industry is currently in a state of "controlled desperation," but they haven't cracked just yet. The data shows that incentive spending is down roughly 0.3 percentage points year-over-year. That might sound like a rounding error to you, but in an industry that moves billions of dollars of inventory in a holiday weekend, it’s a clear signal. Automakers are still practicing "supply discipline," which is corporate speak for "we aren't building enough cars for you to have leverage."

If you were in the market for a luxury SUV or an outgoing-year EV that has been sitting on the lot since the first Biden administration, you might have found a bargain. Dealers are indeed desperate to move metal that has a plug and a 2024 VIN. We saw decent movement on models like the Jeep Grand Cherokee (with factory discounts up to $6,250 in some regions) and the outgoing inventory of electric crossovers that simply haven't caught fire with the public. But for the cars people actually want to buy—the Toyota RAV4s, the Honda Civics, the mid-trim crossovers that serve as the backbone of American suburbia—pricing barely budged.

The few bright spots were largely illusory, designed to get you into the showroom so a salesperson could upsell you on floor mats and nitrogen-filled tires. You likely saw headlines about "0% APR for 72 months" on the Chevrolet Silverado or Ford F-150. And those deals are real—if, and only if, you want a specific configuration of a half-ton truck that costs $60,000 to start. For the entry-level buyer or the person looking for a sub-$40k commuter, those rates were nonexistent. The average interest rate for a new car loan is still hovering uncomfortably high, and automakers showed zero interest in subsidizing that rate for their best-selling, high-margin models.

So, why the disconnect? Why advertise a sale that doesn’t exist? It’s the classic "get them in the door" tactic, amplified by a market that is still trying to figure out what "normal" looks like. Inventory levels are rising, yes—vehicles are sitting on lots about five days longer than they were this time last year—but they aren't at the glut levels we saw pre-pandemic. Dealers aren't drowning in cars; they're just... damp. And damp dealers don't slash prices by $5,000; they slash them by $500 and offer you a free oil change.

However, if you struck out this weekend, do not go out and buy a used Nissan Altima out of spite. The industry wisdom suggests that December is when the real desperation sets in. Automakers have quarterly and annual sales targets to hit, and the closer we get to New Year's Eve, the more likely those regional managers are to unlock the "break glass in case of emergency" trunk money.

Historically, the week between Christmas and New Year’s is the sweet spot. That is when a dealer who is ten units away from a massive manufacturer bonus will do unthinkable things to a price sheet just to get a signature. If you can hold off until then, you might actually find the deal that Black Friday promised but failed to deliver. Until then, enjoy your leftovers, keep your current car running, and remember: a "Sales Event" is just a marketing term, not a legal obligation to save you money.